TAIPEI – In a significant move signalling a firm resolve to defend its sovereignty, Taiwan has announced a monumental 23% increase in its defence spending. The decision comes amidst escalating military and diplomatic pressure from Beijing and a concerted push from Washington for Taipei to bolster its self-defence capabilities. The unprecedented budget hike underscores a strategic shift towards a “porcupine strategy,” aimed at making any potential invasion by mainland China an unacceptably costly endeavour.
The new defence budget, approved by Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, allocates a substantial portion of the nation’s financial resources to the Ministry of National Defense. While specific figures have been redacted for national security, the 23% jump is the largest such increase in recent history, reflecting the gravity with which the government views the current security landscape. This financial commitment is intended to fund a wide array of military procurements, readiness enhancements, and technological advancements, transforming Taiwan into a more formidable and resilient force. Key areas of investment include the acquisition of asymmetric warfare capabilities, the development of indigenous defence technology, and the modernization of its reserve forces.
Taiwan’s move is a direct response to the persistent and growing threat from China, which considers the island a breakaway province that must be reunified with the mainland, by force if necessary. For years, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been modernizing its military at a breakneck pace, building a world-class navy and air force designed to project power far beyond its shores. This military expansion has been accompanied by a steady stream of coercive actions against Taiwan. Chinese military aircraft, including advanced fighter jets and bombers, have repeatedly breached Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), testing the island’s response capabilities and wearing down its air force. Naval exercises simulating an invasion have become more frequent and extensive, creating a constant state of alert for the Taiwanese military.
Beijing’s rhetoric has also grown more aggressive. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has consistently reiterated that the “reunification of the motherland” is an inevitable historical trend and has refused to renounce the use of force. This combination of military drills, diplomatic isolation, and fiery rhetoric has left Taiwan with little choice but to prepare for the worst-case scenario. The 23% budget increase is seen as a necessary measure to close the widening military gap and signal to both China and the international community that Taiwan is serious about its defence.
The United States, Taiwan’s most crucial international partner, has been a key driver behind this defence boost. Washington has, for decades, walked a tightrope with its “strategic ambiguity” policy, which neither promises to defend Taiwan nor rules out military intervention in the event of a Chinese attack. However, in recent years, this ambiguity has been accompanied by increasingly vocal encouragement for Taiwan to strengthen its own defence. Senior U.S. officials, including high-level members of the military and government, have made public and private appeals for Taiwan to invest in a more credible deterrence. This pressure has manifested in increased arms sales, with Washington supplying Taipei with a range of advanced military hardware, including F-16 fighter jets, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and advanced radar systems.
The core of the U.S. and Taiwanese strategy is the “porcupine strategy”—a concept championed by military strategists and policy experts. The idea is to make Taiwan so difficult to conquer that the cost of an invasion would be too high for China to bear. Instead of trying to match the PLA’s conventional strength, which is virtually impossible given China’s massive economy and population, Taiwan is focusing on asymmetric warfare. This involves investing in mobile, lethal, and difficult-to-target weapons systems. The new budget will be used to acquire a greater number of anti-ship missiles, anti-aircraft systems, and drone swarms. These systems are designed to inflict maximum damage on an invading force, sinking ships and downing aircraft before they can land on Taiwanese soil. The strategy aims to transform the Taiwan Strait into a “kill zone” for the PLA, thereby deterring an invasion before it even begins.
Public opinion in Taiwan appears to be largely in favour of the defence increase. A recent survey conducted by a local think tank found that a majority of Taiwanese citizens believe that a stronger military is essential for deterring a Chinese attack and preserving the island’s democratic way of life. While there are some dissenting voices who argue that military spending should not come at the expense of social welfare or economic development, the prevailing sentiment is one of grim determination. The government has also been working to improve military readiness through enhanced training and a potential return to a longer conscription period, moves that are being met with mixed public reactions but are nonetheless seen as vital by military planners.
The ripple effects of Taiwan’s defense budget increase extend far beyond the Taiwan Strait. Regional powers, including Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, are closely monitoring the situation. Japan, in particular, has expressed deep concern over the security of Taiwan, viewing it as a critical component of its own national security. Any conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have devastating consequences for global trade and the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. As a result, these nations are also increasing their own defence spending and engaging in more joint military exercises with the United States.
Military analysts are divided on the long-term effectiveness of Taiwan’s strategy. Some experts believe that the 23% increase is a necessary but insufficient step. They argue that China’s military modernization is so rapid that Taiwan will need to make even larger and more sustained investments to maintain a credible deterrent. Other analysts are more optimistic, arguing that the “porcupine strategy” is the most pragmatic approach. They contend that even a modest increase in Taiwan’s defensive capabilities can significantly raise the cost of an invasion for the PLA, making it less likely to occur. The consensus, however, is that while Taiwan is taking the right steps, the ultimate outcome will depend on the interplay of complex geopolitical factors. The strategic chess game in the Taiwan Strait is far from over, and Taiwan’s defence budget is now a key piece on the board.
