European countries like Bulgaria and the Netherlands are experiencing political shifts amid economic and migration pressures due to a combination of long-standing structural challenges, recent economic uncertainties, and the politicization of migration as a central electoral issue.
The Netherlands: Migration, Housing, and Political Upheaval
Collapse of the Dutch Government Over Migration
- The Dutch government collapsed after far-right leader Geert Wilders withdrew his Party for Freedom (PVV) from the ruling coalition, citing disagreements over proposed anti-immigration policies16.
- Wilders demanded a total halt to asylum, stricter family reunification rules, and even the deployment of the army at borders. When coalition partners refused to fully endorse these measures, he pulled out, causing the resignation of Prime Minister Dick Schoof and the cabinet16.
Migration as a Political Flashpoint
- Although the actual number of asylum seekers in the Netherlands is at its lowest since 2020, Wilders and the PVV successfully framed migration as the root cause of other social issues, such as the housing shortage, rising living costs, and strains on healthcare and education3.
- This narrative resonated with voters—especially young and first-time voters—who feel squeezed by the housing crisis and perceive migrants as being prioritized for scarce resources3.
- The PVV’s hardline stance on migration, including proposals to deny all asylum requests and make family reunification nearly impossible, became a litmus test for coalition stability. The inability to reach consensus on these issues led directly to the government’s collapse16.
Broader European Context
- Across Europe, migration debates are intensifying, often fueled by broader anxieties about identity, security, and economic opportunity. Even as actual migration flows into Europe have stabilized or declined, political rhetoric and policy proposals have become more restrictive, reflecting public concerns and the influence of far-right parties4.
Bulgaria: Political Instability, Eurozone Aspirations, and Structural Challenges
Recent Political Instability
- Bulgaria has held seven general elections in less than four years, reflecting prolonged political deadlock and public dissatisfaction with governance2.
- A new coalition government formed in January 2025, led by Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov, is currently held together by a shared goal: eurozone accession25. This objective acts as a temporary stabilizer, but the risk of renewed instability remains, especially after euro adoption2.
Economic and Demographic Pressures
- Bulgaria’s economy has shown resilience, with steady growth and strong domestic consumption, but faces significant challenges: a shrinking working-age population, slow structural reforms, and weak absorption of EU funds2.
- The country’s demographic decline—driven by aging and emigration—threatens long-term growth and exacerbates labor shortages, making it harder to sustain economic momentum2.
- While Bulgaria is set to join the eurozone in 2026, concerns about corruption, judicial independence, and public administration persist, and the EU has tied some funding to progress on these issues5.
Migration and External Shocks
- Bulgaria’s migration pressures are less acute than in Western Europe, but the country remains vulnerable to shifts in migration flows, especially if conflicts elsewhere (Ukraine, Middle East, Africa) push more people toward EU borders4.
- Economic uncertainty in key trading partners (like Germany and Romania) and possible ripple effects from U.S. tariffs on Europe could indirectly impact Bulgaria’s growth and stability2.
Underlying Trends Across Europe
Migration as a Political Catalyst
- Even where migration numbers are stable or declining, the issue remains politically potent. Parties like the PVV in the Netherlands use migration as a proxy for broader anxieties about economic insecurity, cultural change, and government competence34.
- The politicization of migration is reinforced by visible strains on public services, housing, and labor markets, even when these problems have deeper structural causes.
Economic Uncertainty and Reform Fatigue
- Many European countries, including Bulgaria, face slow growth, demographic decline, and challenges in implementing structural reforms. These factors contribute to political volatility and the rise of anti-establishment or nationalist parties25.
- The push for eurozone accession in Bulgaria is both a policy anchor and a source of tension, as it requires reforms that can be politically unpopular and exposes the government to public skepticism25.
External Shocks and Shifting Alliances
- Global factors—such as U.S. trade policy, the war in Ukraine, and instability in the Middle East—add to the sense of uncertainty and pressure on European governments to deliver security and prosperity245.
Conclusion
Political shifts in countries like Bulgaria and the Netherlands are a response to a mix of economic anxieties, migration pressures (real and perceived), and the ability of populist or nationalist parties to channel public frustration into electoral gains. In the Netherlands, migration became the wedge issue that toppled the government, while in Bulgaria, the drive for eurozone accession provides only temporary stability amid deeper demographic and governance challenges. Across Europe, these dynamics are likely to persist as long as economic uncertainty and migration remain central to public debate123456.
- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/4/why-did-the-dutch-government-collapse-and-whats-next
- https://www.minfin.bg/upload/61369/Research+Update_Republic+of+Bulgaria_May-23-2025.pdf
- https://mixedmigration.org/the-netherlands-politically-manufactured-migration-crisis/
- https://www.icmpd.org/news/migration-outlook-2025-inflows-to-europe-stabilise-but-trump-2.0-ukraine-and-syria-pose-looming-challenges-for-the-eu
- https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-to-eurozone-member-rule-of-law-money-laundering-eu-commission-investment-russia-ukraine-balkans/
- https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/06/03/dutch-far-right-leader-geert-wilders-pulls-party-out-of-government-over-migration-plan
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Bulgaria
- https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/document/download/a517f04a-1817-48e1-b9c1-0f2f3e1e7173_en?filename=BG_CR_SWD_2025_202_1_EN_autre_document_travail_service_part1_v4.pdf
- https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-volume-2025-issue-1_83363382-en/full-report/bulgaria_e32e2cc8.html
- https://intranet.ebrd.com/content/dam/ebrd_dxp/assets/pdfs/country-strategies/bulgaria/bulgaria-country-strategy-2025-30.pdf
