In a significant development that could potentially reshape the management of water resources in the South Asian region, India has issued a second formal notice to Pakistan, urging a “review and modification” of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). The 64-year-old treaty, which has been the bedrock of water-sharing arrangements between the two neighboring countries, is now facing a critical moment as India seeks to revisit its terms amid changing regional and global circumstances.
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A Treaty of Historical Significance
The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, with the World Bank acting as a third-party guarantor. The treaty was hailed as a landmark agreement at the time, as it effectively divided the waters of the Indus River system, comprising six rivers, between the two countries.
Under the treaty, the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—were allocated to India, while the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—were designated for Pakistan. This water-sharing arrangement has been in place for over six decades, despite several wars and ongoing hostilities between the two nations. The treaty is often cited as a rare example of peaceful conflict resolution and cooperation between India and Pakistan.
However, with shifting geopolitics, growing water demands, and climate change, the treaty’s ability to address contemporary challenges has come into question.
India’s Second Formal Notice
India’s latest formal notice to Pakistan, its second within a year, calls for a comprehensive “review and modification” of the treaty. India argues that the treaty, conceived in the 20th century, is no longer fully equipped to deal with the water-related issues of the 21st century, particularly in light of technological advancements, population growth, and environmental changes.
The primary reason behind India’s call for modification is the increasing strain on water resources and the rapid urbanization and industrialization occurring on both sides of the border. With water becoming a more scarce and precious resource, India believes that the existing terms of the IWT may be skewed and outdated, requiring revision to reflect present-day realities.
The notice issued by India highlights the need for a framework that is more adaptive to changing climate patterns, which have already begun to affect the water flow in the Indus Basin. Glacial melting, erratic rainfall, and the shifting course of rivers are some of the challenges that India points to as reasons for revisiting the treaty.
Background: Rising Tensions Over Water
While the Indus Waters Treaty has long been lauded for its resilience, tensions over water-sharing have simmered between India and Pakistan for years. Both countries rely heavily on the Indus River system for irrigation, drinking water, and energy generation, making the river system an essential part of their economic and social fabric.
In recent years, disputes have arisen over the construction of dams and hydroelectric projects on the Indian side of the river system. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerns about India’s development of dams on rivers like the Jhelum and Chenab, arguing that such projects could restrict water flow into Pakistan, impacting its agriculture and energy sectors.
India, on the other hand, maintains that these projects are within the bounds of the treaty, as they are designed to generate electricity and not to divert water. However, these disputes have led to increased friction between the two countries, with Pakistan frequently bringing its concerns before the World Bank and other international forums.
India’s growing concerns over Pakistan’s use of water from the Indus system, as well as its own increasing water needs, have prompted calls for greater flexibility in the treaty’s terms. The issuance of the second formal notice underscores India’s determination to address these concerns through a renegotiation process.
What Does India Want to Change?
While India has not explicitly detailed the exact changes it seeks in the treaty, several key issues are likely to be at the center of the renegotiation process:
- Hydroelectric Projects and Dams:
India is likely to push for greater clarity and flexibility in its right to build dams and hydroelectric projects on the western rivers. Currently, the treaty allows India limited use of the waters from the western rivers, primarily for power generation. However, disputes over specific projects have led to frequent confrontations, and India may seek clearer guidelines to prevent future disputes. - Water Storage Capacity:
India may also seek to expand its water storage capacity on the western rivers. Currently, India is allowed limited storage under the treaty, which restricts its ability to manage water flow during periods of excess rainfall or drought. Increased storage would enable India to better regulate water distribution, particularly in regions prone to seasonal water scarcity. - Environmental Considerations:
With climate change increasingly affecting water availability, India may push for provisions that allow for more flexible water-sharing arrangements based on seasonal variations and environmental changes. For instance, India might seek to include clauses that take into account glacial melting and unpredictable weather patterns, which are becoming more common due to global warming. - Population Growth and Water Demand:
Both India and Pakistan have experienced significant population growth since the treaty was first signed. India may seek to modify the treaty to account for increased water demand due to its growing population and urbanization. With cities and industries placing greater pressure on water resources, India could argue for a reallocation of water based on contemporary needs. - Third-Party Involvement:
The original treaty had the World Bank as a third-party guarantor and mediator in case of disputes. India may seek changes to the dispute resolution mechanisms, potentially involving other international bodies or opting for bilateral resolutions, given the evolving global dynamics and shifts in the geopolitical landscape.
Pakistan’s Position
Pakistan has so far resisted calls to modify the Indus Waters Treaty, arguing that it remains a fair and effective arrangement. Pakistan views the treaty as vital to its water security, especially given its heavy dependence on the Indus River system for agriculture and power generation. Any significant changes that could reduce its access to water from the western rivers would have far-reaching consequences for its economy and food security.
Islamabad has raised concerns over India’s intentions, viewing the calls for modification as a potential threat to its water rights. Pakistan has traditionally relied on international forums, including the World Bank, to mediate disputes and is likely to continue this approach in response to India’s notice.
Looking Ahead: Potential Impact
India’s push for a review and modification of the Indus Waters Treaty could have significant implications for both countries, as well as for the broader South Asian region. Water is already a contentious issue in the subcontinent, and any changes to the treaty will likely be closely watched by other neighboring countries that share transboundary rivers with India.
The renegotiation process, if it moves forward, will also be a test of diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan, which have been strained in recent years. While water-sharing has been one area where the two countries have managed to maintain cooperation, any changes to the treaty could either deepen tensions or pave the way for a more adaptive and sustainable framework for managing shared water resources.
The stakes are high, and the outcome of these discussions will be critical for the future of water security in the region.
