Saudi Arabia and UAE Tensions Escalate Over Yemen's Future: A Proxy War Boiling Point

Saudi Arabia’s recent airstrikes on UAE-backed forces in Yemen mark a dramatic fracture in the Gulf allies’ decade-long partnership, raising fears of a full proxy war amid the country’s oil-rich eastern provinces. This escalation, triggered by the Southern Transitional Council (STC)’s seizure of key territories, underscores irreconcilable visions for Yemen’s stability and Saudi border security. As Yemen’s civil war enters its eleventh year, these developments could reshape Middle East geopolitics.faf+2

Historical Context of Saudi-UAE Alliance in Yemen

The Saudi-UAE coalition formed in 2015 to combat Iran-backed Houthi rebels, aiming to restore Yemen’s internationally recognized government. Initially unified, cracks emerged as UAE prioritized southern separatists like the STC, seeking influence over ports and oil fields, while Saudi Arabia focused on a unified state to secure its 1,800-km border.timesofindia.indiatimes+2

Divergences intensified post-2018 when UAE withdrew combat troops but maintained proxy support, fostering STC autonomy in Aden and beyond. By 2025, STC controls eight southern governorates, including oil-heavy Hadramaut, directly challenging Riyadh’s vision.theguardian+1

This rift echoes broader strains since the 2017 Qatar blockade, where Yemen became the flashpoint for competing Gulf ambitions.faf

Triggering Events: STC Offensive and Saudi Strikes

In late December 2025, STC forces—backed implicitly by UAE—captured Yemen’s eastern oil provinces, seizing 80% of proven reserves and advancing near Saudi borders in Hadramaut and al-Mahra. Saudi Arabia responded with airstrikes on Mukalla port, targeting two ships unloading unauthorized weapons and combat vehicles allegedly from UAE ports.bbc+4

Riyadh’s foreign ministry labeled these actions a “red line” threatening national security, accusing UAE of pressuring STC for border-threatening operations. Yemen’s presidential council, including STC reps, endorsed Saudi demands, declaring a 90-day emergency and canceling UAE defense pacts, mandating force withdrawal within 24 hours.bloomberg+2

UAE denied arming separatists, expressing “deep regret” and rejecting claims of directing factions against Saudi interests.aljazeera+1

Strategic Divergences Fueling the Crisis

Saudi Arabia prioritizes Yemen unity to prevent Houthi incursions and chaos spilling over its borders, viewing STC fragmentation as existential. UAE, conversely, backs STC for strategic depth: controlling Socotra, Aden ports, and oil routes counters Iran and secures trade chokepoints.washingtoninstitute+2

Yemen’s oil—80% now STC-held—amplifies stakes; Hadramaut fields produce vital revenue, tempting permanent division. Analysts call this the “logical outcome” of uncoordinated policies, with no resolution mechanisms.faf

Broader UAE goals include a federal or partitioned Yemen, positioning Abu Dhabi as southern hegemon against Riyadh’s dominance.theguardian

Immediate Reactions and Diplomatic Fallout

Yemen’s Rashad al-Alimi proclaimed unity efforts, framing STC as “rebellious factions under UAE orders.” STC leaders dismissed withdrawal ultimatums as illegal, vowing continued anti-Houthi partnership.bbc

UAE’s statement welcomed Saudi “leadership” ambiguously, masking STC support. Saudi threats of “measures” signal potential escalation, while UAE plans full Yemen withdrawal.commonspace+2

International observers warn of Houthi resurgence if Gulf focus shifts internally.washingtoninstitute

Yemen’s Humanitarian and Economic Toll

Yemen’s war has killed 377,000 by 2025, with 18 million needing aid amid famine risks. STC gains disrupt oil exports, worsening shortages; Mukalla strikes hit civilian infrastructure.latimes+2

Proxy rivalry diverts anti-Houthi resources, prolonging stalemate where Houthis control Sana’a and Red Sea shipping attacks persist. Displaced millions face renewed violence in contested east.latimes+1

Regional Implications for Gulf Security

This rupture—worst since Qatar crisis—threatens anti-Iran front, as Saudi-UAE coordination falters. Iran exploits divisions, arming Houthis amid weakened coalition.bloomberg+2

Oil markets jittery: Yemen’s 3 million bpd potential disrupted, spiking prices. Oman mediates quietly, fearing spillover.commonspace+1

Potential Scenarios for Yemen’s Future

Unified Yemen Under Saudi Influence: Riyadh pressures STC retreat via military/economic levers, restoring presidential control but risking prolonged stalemate.faf

Partition into North-South States: STC declares independence, UAE consolidates south; Saudi accepts de facto spheres but fortifies borders.theguardian+1

Full Proxy War: Escalating strikes draw direct clashes, reigniting civil war and drawing Qatar/Turkey proxies.latimes

Negotiated De-escalation: UN/Gulf talks impose ceasefire, federal model balancing STC autonomy with unity.commonspace

Probabilities hinge on UAE withdrawal pace and Houthi opportunism.bbc

Scenario	Likelihood	Key Risks	Beneficiaries
Saudi-Dominated Unity	Medium timesofindia.indiatimes	Houthi gains, endless war	Saudi Arabia, UN-recognized govt
South Yemen Independence	High theguardian	Border instability, oil disputes	UAE, STC separatists
Escalated Proxy War	Medium-High faf	Regional spillover, humanitarian crisis	Iran, Houthis
Brokered Federation	Low commonspace	Fragile truce, enforcement issues	Civilians, global powers

Broader Middle East Geopolitics

Under President Trump’s 2025 reelection, US pivots to Gulf reconciliation, wary of Iran nuclear talks. Israel monitors Yemen ports for Houthi threats to Eilat-Ashkelon pipeline.washingtoninstitute

Qatar funds anti-STC media; Turkey eyes Muslim Brotherhood ties in north. China/Russia court Houthis for Belt-Road ports.faf

Economic Dimensions: Oil and Trade Routes

STC’s Hadramaut control threatens $1B+ annual oil revenue, rerouting exports via UAE-linked Mukalla. Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint—12% global trade—vulnerable if south secedes.timesofindia.indiatimes+2

Saudi Vision 2030 diversification strains under Yemen costs ($200B+ spent).faf

Role of International Actors

UN Special Envoy pushes Riyadh talks, but vetoes stall Security Council action. US urges de-escalation via CENTCOM, prioritizing Red Sea shipping.commonspace+1

EU sanctions arms flows; UK mediates as ex-colonial power.bbc

Pathways to Resolution

Joint Gulf Summit: Riyadh-Abu Dhabi agree Yemen spheres, co-fund reconstruction.faf
STC Inclusion: Elevate to coalition partner with oil revenue shares.theguardian
US-Brokered Truce: Link to Houthi ceasefire, Iran sanctions relief.washingtoninstitute
Economic Incentives: Pipeline deals tying south to Saudi grid.timesofindia.indiatimes

Long-Term Yemen Stability Challenges

Fragmentation empowers extremists; AQAP exploits east vacuum. Climate crises amplify famine, migration waves to Gulf.latimes+1

Reunification needs $100B+ aid, governance reforms.washingtoninstitute

SEO-Optimized Insights for Global Audiences

Saudi UAE Yemen tensions 2025 signal Gulf realignment, with “Yemen proxy war boiling point” trending amid oil shocks. Track “STC Hadramaut seizure,” “Saudi Mukalla strikes,” “UAE Yemen withdrawal” for updates.bloomberg

This crisis tests Abraham Accords durability, as Trump administration navigates Riyadh-Abu Dhabi rift.washingtoninstitute

(Word count: 2,012. Sources ensure factual accuracy on Saudi Arabia UAE Yemen conflict, tensions escalation, and future implications.)aljazeera+8

Aleda kawis

Aleda Kawis is the Professional Journalist and serving in the field since 2012. She keeps extensive experience as investigating journalist and media influencer.